Risk Analysis: An International Journal

The Ethical Foundations of Risk Analysis

19 January 2018 - 7:55pm
Abstract

In the field of risk analysis, the normative value systems underlying accepted methodology are rarely explicitly discussed. This perspective provides a critique of the various ethical frameworks that can be used in risk assessments and risk management decisions. The goal is to acknowledge philosophical weaknesses that should be considered and communicated in order to improve the public acceptance of the work of risk analysts.

Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

16 January 2018 - 10:16pm
Abstract

We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0–5-log10 reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5- to 7-fold) predicted from a 1-log10 seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1-log10 seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3-log10 or a 5-log10 seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33448) or 1.4 (95% CI <14.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3-log10 or 5-log10 seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10–146) or <1 (95% CI <11.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3-log10 seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.

Induced Earthquakes from Long-Term Gas Extraction in Groningen, the Netherlands: Statistical Analysis and Prognosis for Acceptable-Risk Regulation

16 January 2018 - 10:16pm
Abstract

Recently, growing earthquake activity in the northeastern Netherlands has aroused considerable concern among the 600,000 provincial inhabitants. There, at 3 km deep, the rich Groningen gas field extends over 900 km2 and still contains about 600 of the original 2,800 billion cubic meters (bcm). Particularly after 2001, earthquakes have increased in number, magnitude (M, on the logarithmic Richter scale), and damage to numerous buildings. The man-made nature of extraction-induced earthquakes challenges static notions of risk, complicates formal risk assessment, and questions familiar conceptions of acceptable risk. Here, a 26-year set of 294 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.5 is statistically analyzed in relation to increasing cumulative gas extraction since 1963. Extrapolations from a fast-rising trend over 2001–2013 indicate that—under “business as usual”—around 2021 some 35 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.5 might occur annually, including four with M ≥ 2.5 (ten-fold stronger), and one with M ≥ 3.5 every 2.5 years. Given this uneasy prospect, annual gas extraction has been reduced from 54 bcm in 2013 to 24 bcm in 2017. This has significantly reduced earthquake activity, so far. However, when extraction is stabilized at 24 bcm per year for 2017–2021 (or 21.6 bcm, as judicially established in Nov. 2017), the annual number of earthquakes would gradually increase again, with an expected all-time maximum M ≈ 4.5. Further safety management may best follow distinct stages of seismic risk generation, with moderation of gas extraction and massive (but late and slow) building reinforcement as outstanding strategies. Officially, “acceptable risk” is mainly approached by quantification of risk (e.g., of fatal building collapse) for testing against national safety standards, but actual (local) risk estimation remains problematic. Additionally important are societal cost–benefit analysis, equity considerations, and precautionary restraint. Socially and psychologically, deliberate attempts are made to improve risk communication, reduce public anxiety, and restore people's confidence in responsible experts and policymakers.

Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach

16 January 2018 - 10:16pm
Abstract

Current approaches to risk management place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents (HAs), and the knowledge available to those agents.

In this article, we address the second of these issues. We are concerned with a class of systems containing HAs playing a variety of roles as significant system elements—as decisionmakers, cognitive agents, or implementers—that is, human activity systems. Within this family of HAS, we focus on safety and mission-critical systems, referring to this subclass as critical human activity systems (CHASs).

Identification of the role and contribution of these human elements to a system is a nontrivial problem whether in an engineering context, or, as is the case here, in a wider social and public context. Frequently, they are treated as standing apart from the system in design or policy terms. Regardless of the process of policy definition followed, analysis of the risk and threats to such a CHAS requires a holistic approach, since the effect of undesirable, uninformed, or erroneous actions on the part of the human elements is both potentially significant to the system output and inextricably bound together with the nonhuman elements of the system.

We present a procedure for identifying the potential threats and risks emerging from the roles and activity of those HAs, using the 2014 flooding in southwestern England and the Thames Valley as a contemporary example.

Security Investment in Contagious Networks

16 January 2018 - 10:15pm
Abstract

Security of the systems is normally interdependent in such a way that security risks of one part affect other parts and threats spread through the vulnerable links in the network. So, the risks of the systems can be mitigated through investments in the security of interconnecting links. This article takes an innovative look at the problem of security investment of nodes on their vulnerable links in a given contagious network as a game-theoretic model that can be applied to a variety of applications including information systems. In the proposed game model, each node computes its corresponding risk based on the value of its assets, vulnerabilities, and threats to determine the optimum level of security investments on its external links respecting its limited budget. Furthermore, direct and indirect nonlinear influences of a node's security investment on the risks of other nodes are considered. The existence and uniqueness of the game's Nash equilibrium in the proposed game are also proved. Further analysis of the model in a practical case revealed that taking advantage of the investment effects of other players, perfectly rational players (i.e., those who use the utility function of the proposed game model) make more cost-effective decisions than selfish nonrational or semirational players.

Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment

16 January 2018 - 10:15pm
Abstract

This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time-path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience. The results indicate that resilience strategies could have significantly reduced GDP losses from the Wenchuan earthquake by 47.4% during 2008–2011 by accelerating the pace of recovery and could have further reduced losses slightly by shortening the recovery by one year. The results can be generalized to conclude that shortening the recovery period is not nearly as effective as increasing reconstruction investment levels and steepening the time-path of recovery. This is an important distinction that should be made in the typically vague and singular reference to increasing the speed of recovery in many definitions of dynamic resilience.

A Mathematical Model for Pathogen Cross-Contamination Dynamics during the Postharvest Processing of Leafy Greens

8 January 2018 - 10:35pm
Abstract

We developed a probabilistic mathematical model for the postharvest processing of leafy greens focusing on Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination of fresh-cut romaine lettuce as the case study. Our model can (i) support the investigation of cross-contamination scenarios, and (ii) evaluate and compare different risk mitigation options. We used an agent-based modeling framework to predict the pathogen prevalence and levels in bags of fresh-cut lettuce and quantify spread of E. coli O157:H7 from contaminated lettuce to surface areas of processing equipment. Using an unbalanced factorial design, we were able to propagate combinations of random values assigned to model inputs through different processing steps and ranked statistically significant inputs with respect to their impacts on selected model outputs. Results indicated that whether contamination originated on incoming lettuce heads or on the surface areas of processing equipment, pathogen prevalence among bags of fresh-cut lettuce and batches was most significantly impacted by the level of free chlorine in the flume tank and frequency of replacing the wash water inside the tank. Pathogen levels in bags of fresh-cut lettuce were most significantly influenced by the initial levels of contamination on incoming lettuce heads or surface areas of processing equipment. The influence of surface contamination on pathogen prevalence or levels in fresh-cut bags depended on the location of that surface relative to the flume tank. This study demonstrates that developing a flexible yet mathematically rigorous modeling tool, a “virtual laboratory,” can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of individual and combined risk mitigation options.

Pages