Risk Analysis: An International Journal

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Table of Contents for Risk Analysis. List of articles from both the latest and EarlyView issues.
Updated: 2 hours 30 min ago

“Chemophobia” Today: Consumers’ Knowledge and Perceptions of Chemicals

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

This mixed‐methods study investigated consumers’ knowledge of chemicals in terms of basic principles of toxicology and then related this knowledge, in addition to other factors, to their fear of chemical substances (i.e., chemophobia). Both qualitative interviews and a large‐scale online survey were conducted in the German‐speaking part of Switzerland. A Mokken scale was developed to measure laypeople's toxicological knowledge. The results indicate that most laypeople are unaware of the similarities between natural and synthetic chemicals in terms of certain toxicological principles. Furthermore, their associations with the term “chemical substances” and the self‐reported affect prompted by these associations are mostly negative. The results also suggest that knowledge of basic principles of toxicology, self‐reported affect evoked by the term “chemical substances,” risk‐benefit perceptions concerning synthetic chemicals, and trust in regulation processes are all negatively associated with chemophobia, while general health concerns are positively related to chemophobia. Thus, to enhance informed consumer decisionmaking, it might be necessary to tackle the stigmatization of the term “chemical substances” as well as address and clarify prevalent misconceptions.

A Fuzzy‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Under‐Ice Missions

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial, and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice cover, and inaccessibility as compared to open‐water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under‐ice missions is crucial to ensure an AUV's survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predominantly focused on the use of historical fault log data of an AUV and elicitation of experts’ opinions for probabilistic quantification. However, an AUV program in its early phases lacks historical data and any assessment of risk may be vague and ambiguous. In this article, a fuzzy‐based risk assessment framework is proposed for quantifying the risk of AUV loss under ice. The framework uses the knowledge, prior experience of available subject matter experts, and the widely used semiquantitative risk assessment matrix, albeit in a new form. A well‐developed example based on an upcoming mission by an ISE‐explorer class AUV is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The example demonstrates that the proposed fuzzy‐based risk assessment framework is pragmatically useful for future under‐ice AUV deployments. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.

Mediating and Moderating Roles of Trust in Government in Effective Risk Rumor Management: A Test Case of Radiation‐Contaminated Seafood in South Korea

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

This study has two aims: to identify effective strategies for managing false rumors about risks and to investigate the roles that basic and situational trust in government play in that process. Online experiment data were collected nationwide from 915 adults in South Korea. They were exposed to a false rumor about radiation‐contaminated seafood and were randomly assigned to one of three rumor response conditions (refutation, denial, attack the attacker). One‐way ANOVA indicated that the refutation response yielded the highest level of situational trust in government response (TGR). Results of moderated mediation models using the PROCESS Macro indicated the following. (1) The refutation response had a positive effect on TGR, and the attack response had a negative effect. (2) There were significant interaction effects between the attack response and preexisting basic trust in government (BTG) in that the attack response had a negative effect on TGR only when BTG was low. (3) TGR significantly mediated the relationship between each of the three rumor responses and two dependent variables (intentions for rumor dissemination and for unwarranted actions), but in dramatically different ways across the responses. This study provides evidence for the superior effectiveness of the refutation rumor response and identifies specific roles of trust in government in the risk rumor management process.

Health Risk Assessment of Photoresists Used in an Optoelectronic Semiconductor Factory

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Photoresist materials are indispensable in photolithography, a process used in semiconductor fabrication. The work process and potential hazards in semiconductor production have raised concerns as to adverse health effects. We therefore performed a health risk assessment of occupational exposure to positive photoresists in a single optoelectronic semiconductor factory in Taiwan. Positive photoresists are widely used in the optoelectronic semiconductor industry for photolithography. Occupational exposure was estimated using the Stoffenmanager® model. Bayesian modeling incorporated available personal air sampling data. We examined the composition and by‐products of the photoresists according to descriptions published in the literature and patents; the main compositions assessed were propylene glycol methyl ether acetate (PGMEA), novolac resin, photoactive compound, phenol, cresol, benzene, toluene, and xylene. Reference concentrations for each compound were reassessed and updated if necessary. Calculated hazard quotients were greater than 1 for benzene, phenol, xylene, and PGMEA, indicating that they have the potential for exposures that exceed reference levels. The information from our health risk assessment suggests that benzene and phenol have a higher level of risk than is currently acknowledged. Undertaking our form of risk assessment in the workplace design phase could identify compounds of major concern, allow for the early implementation of control measures and monitoring strategies, and thereby reduce the level of exposure to health risks that workers face throughout their career.

Americans’ Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective‐action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans’ behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior‐specific analyses), the behaviors involved, and whether analysis focused on the full sample or only on people who had a reasonable opportunity to enact the behavior or who believed it relevant to their lives. There was a general contrast between mosquito control actions (removal of mosquito breeding areas and pesticide spraying) and travel‐related behaviors (avoiding travel to areas of local transmission of the virus, protecting oneself from mosquito bites after potential exposure, and practicing safe sex after potential exposure). Reported action or inaction during the 2016 mosquito season, and stages of behavior change, were both elicited in January–February 2017; both drove intentions in April 2017 for the upcoming season, although direct and indirect effects varied widely. Collectively these findings present theoretical, measurement, and practical implications for understanding, tracking, and promoting voluntary protective actions against hazards.

Loss/Gain Framing, Dose, and Reactance: A Message Experiment

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Whether a loss or gain frame has a persuasive advantage in communicating health risks is a matter of ongoing debate. Findings reported in the literature are mixed, suggesting that framing effects are likely complex and may be influenced by a combination of factors. This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements). Compared to loss frames, gain frames generated more threat to freedom and reactance. Dosage exerted significant influence at the extremes; the one‐dose messages invoked less intentions to exercise compared to the four‐dose messages. Planned contrasts revealed significant frame × dose interactions. Notably, the one‐dose gain‐framed messages triggered significantly more freedom threat and less intentions to engage in physical activity—a situation that changed when the information was loss‐framed or when the dosage was increased.

Response to Letter to the Editor

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2604-2607, December 2019.

From the Editors

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2599-2600, December 2019.

Issue Information ‐ TOC

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, December 2019.

Erratum

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2790-2790, December 2019.

Adversarial Risk Analysis to Allocate Optimal Defense Resources for Protecting Cyber–Physical Systems from Cyber Attacks

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Defenders have to enforce defense strategies by taking decisions on allocation of resources to protect the integrity and survivability of cyber–physical systems (CPSs) from intentional and malicious cyber attacks. In this work, we propose an adversarial risk analysis approach to provide a novel one‐sided prescriptive support strategy for the defender to optimize the defensive resource allocation, based on a subjective expected utility model, in which the decisions of the adversaries are uncertain. This increases confidence in cyber security through robustness of CPS protection actions against uncertain malicious threats compared with prescriptions provided by a classical defend–attack game‐theoretical approach. We present the approach and the results of its application to a nuclear CPS, specifically the digital instrumentation and control system of the advanced lead‐cooled fast reactor European demonstrator.

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Many real‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost‐related and the time‐wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.

“Chemophobia” Today: Consumers’ Knowledge and Perceptions of Chemicals

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

This mixed‐methods study investigated consumers’ knowledge of chemicals in terms of basic principles of toxicology and then related this knowledge, in addition to other factors, to their fear of chemical substances (i.e., chemophobia). Both qualitative interviews and a large‐scale online survey were conducted in the German‐speaking part of Switzerland. A Mokken scale was developed to measure laypeople's toxicological knowledge. The results indicate that most laypeople are unaware of the similarities between natural and synthetic chemicals in terms of certain toxicological principles. Furthermore, their associations with the term “chemical substances” and the self‐reported affect prompted by these associations are mostly negative. The results also suggest that knowledge of basic principles of toxicology, self‐reported affect evoked by the term “chemical substances,” risk‐benefit perceptions concerning synthetic chemicals, and trust in regulation processes are all negatively associated with chemophobia, while general health concerns are positively related to chemophobia. Thus, to enhance informed consumer decisionmaking, it might be necessary to tackle the stigmatization of the term “chemical substances” as well as address and clarify prevalent misconceptions.

A Fuzzy‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Under‐Ice Missions

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial, and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice cover, and inaccessibility as compared to open‐water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under‐ice missions is crucial to ensure an AUV's survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predominantly focused on the use of historical fault log data of an AUV and elicitation of experts’ opinions for probabilistic quantification. However, an AUV program in its early phases lacks historical data and any assessment of risk may be vague and ambiguous. In this article, a fuzzy‐based risk assessment framework is proposed for quantifying the risk of AUV loss under ice. The framework uses the knowledge, prior experience of available subject matter experts, and the widely used semiquantitative risk assessment matrix, albeit in a new form. A well‐developed example based on an upcoming mission by an ISE‐explorer class AUV is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The example demonstrates that the proposed fuzzy‐based risk assessment framework is pragmatically useful for future under‐ice AUV deployments. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.

Mediating and Moderating Roles of Trust in Government in Effective Risk Rumor Management: A Test Case of Radiation‐Contaminated Seafood in South Korea

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

This study has two aims: to identify effective strategies for managing false rumors about risks and to investigate the roles that basic and situational trust in government play in that process. Online experiment data were collected nationwide from 915 adults in South Korea. They were exposed to a false rumor about radiation‐contaminated seafood and were randomly assigned to one of three rumor response conditions (refutation, denial, attack the attacker). One‐way ANOVA indicated that the refutation response yielded the highest level of situational trust in government response (TGR). Results of moderated mediation models using the PROCESS Macro indicated the following. (1) The refutation response had a positive effect on TGR, and the attack response had a negative effect. (2) There were significant interaction effects between the attack response and preexisting basic trust in government (BTG) in that the attack response had a negative effect on TGR only when BTG was low. (3) TGR significantly mediated the relationship between each of the three rumor responses and two dependent variables (intentions for rumor dissemination and for unwarranted actions), but in dramatically different ways across the responses. This study provides evidence for the superior effectiveness of the refutation rumor response and identifies specific roles of trust in government in the risk rumor management process.

Health Risk Assessment of Photoresists Used in an Optoelectronic Semiconductor Factory

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Photoresist materials are indispensable in photolithography, a process used in semiconductor fabrication. The work process and potential hazards in semiconductor production have raised concerns as to adverse health effects. We therefore performed a health risk assessment of occupational exposure to positive photoresists in a single optoelectronic semiconductor factory in Taiwan. Positive photoresists are widely used in the optoelectronic semiconductor industry for photolithography. Occupational exposure was estimated using the Stoffenmanager® model. Bayesian modeling incorporated available personal air sampling data. We examined the composition and by‐products of the photoresists according to descriptions published in the literature and patents; the main compositions assessed were propylene glycol methyl ether acetate (PGMEA), novolac resin, photoactive compound, phenol, cresol, benzene, toluene, and xylene. Reference concentrations for each compound were reassessed and updated if necessary. Calculated hazard quotients were greater than 1 for benzene, phenol, xylene, and PGMEA, indicating that they have the potential for exposures that exceed reference levels. The information from our health risk assessment suggests that benzene and phenol have a higher level of risk than is currently acknowledged. Undertaking our form of risk assessment in the workplace design phase could identify compounds of major concern, allow for the early implementation of control measures and monitoring strategies, and thereby reduce the level of exposure to health risks that workers face throughout their career.

Americans’ Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective‐action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans’ behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior‐specific analyses), the behaviors involved, and whether analysis focused on the full sample or only on people who had a reasonable opportunity to enact the behavior or who believed it relevant to their lives. There was a general contrast between mosquito control actions (removal of mosquito breeding areas and pesticide spraying) and travel‐related behaviors (avoiding travel to areas of local transmission of the virus, protecting oneself from mosquito bites after potential exposure, and practicing safe sex after potential exposure). Reported action or inaction during the 2016 mosquito season, and stages of behavior change, were both elicited in January–February 2017; both drove intentions in April 2017 for the upcoming season, although direct and indirect effects varied widely. Collectively these findings present theoretical, measurement, and practical implications for understanding, tracking, and promoting voluntary protective actions against hazards.

Loss/Gain Framing, Dose, and Reactance: A Message Experiment

3 December 2019 - 7:56pm
Abstract

Whether a loss or gain frame has a persuasive advantage in communicating health risks is a matter of ongoing debate. Findings reported in the literature are mixed, suggesting that framing effects are likely complex and may be influenced by a combination of factors. This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements). Compared to loss frames, gain frames generated more threat to freedom and reactance. Dosage exerted significant influence at the extremes; the one‐dose messages invoked less intentions to exercise compared to the four‐dose messages. Planned contrasts revealed significant frame × dose interactions. Notably, the one‐dose gain‐framed messages triggered significantly more freedom threat and less intentions to engage in physical activity—a situation that changed when the information was loss‐framed or when the dosage was increased.

Pages